Thinking the right way when it comes to odds

The other day I was having a discussion with a person who is very close to me about casino games in general and she made a statement that was disturbing.  It was a statement actually I hear all the time at the tables and I inwardly cringe every time.  The statement happened to be about roulette but similar statements can be heard at almost any table.  The statement was:

"If red comes up 5 times in a row, odds are black will come up next"

COMPLETELY INCORRECT!!!!


The odds that red will appear again are EXACTLY the same as they were the 1st 5 spins, the odds that black will appear are EXACTLY the same as they were the previous 5 spins, and, incidentally, the odds the green (0,00) will come in are also the same.  Do not bet the kids' college tuition based on the misguided thinking that if a result appears so many times in a row, then it won't happen again, or the other misguided thinking that makes some people believe that, in the above scenario, odds are red will appear again since that is a trend.

Think of it this way- neither the wheel nor the little ball in the game of roulette know what they just did or what they are supposed to do.  Each spin is unique and all results have exactly the same odds of occurring each time.  A result may duplicate many times in a row and it will have absolutely no effect on the next spin, except in some people's minds.  The casino, however, LOVES for people to think this way.  That's the reason many establishments have installed boards that show the results of several previous spins next to their roulette tables.  Some people will be walking by and be tempted to lay a bet because they see that one color or the other has appeared several times in a row.  Don't be sucked into this, better to concentrate on how to mathematically reduce the House Edge and make smarter wagers.

Anyway, that's my little piece of advice for you all (or as my Carolinian friends would say, Y'all), hope it helps a little.  As always, if you happen to see me at the tables stop and say "Hi".  Hope to see you there.

WORK HARD, PARTY HARDER